MODULE 2 — What You Are Actually Trying to Validate

Lesson 2.1: The Three Core Startup Risks

Every startup faces three risks:

1. Value Risk
   Does anyone care enough to change behavior?
2. Market Risk
   Is there a group large enough with this problem?
3. Revenue Risk
   Will someone pay—or sacrifice—to solve it?

Most founders test none of these explicitly.

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Lesson 2.2: What Not to Validate First

Do not start by validating:

• Feature sets
• UI preferences
• Technology choices

These are secondary.

A product that solves a painful problem poorly beats a beautiful solution to a mild one.

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Lesson 2.3: The Riskeist Assumption Principle

Your MVP is not the smallest product.
It is the smallest test of your most dangerous assumption.

Ask:

“What must be true for this business to exist at all?”

Validate that first.MODULE 3 — Behavioral Validation (Without a Product)

Lesson 3.1: What Behavioral Validation Looks Like

Behavioral validation means the user:

• Takes action
• Accepts inconvenience
• Commits resources

Examples:

• Scheduling a call
• Paying a deposit
• Waiting for access
• Sharing sensitive information

Interest without behavior is noise.

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Lesson 3.2: Commitment Ladders

Design your validation in ascending cost:

1. Attention (reading, watching)
2. Time (calls, interviews)
3. Effort (manual setup, onboarding)
4. Money (payment, deposit)

If users drop at step 2, do not build for step 4.

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Lesson 3.3: False Positives to Watch For

Beware:

• Friends and peers
• Industry insiders
• Early adopters who love novelty

They skew optimism.

Real validation comes from users who:

Have something to lose

Are busy

Are skeptical

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