Entrepreneur Edge

Early traction is intoxicating.
It creates narrative.

Unfortunately, it also misleads.

Why Early Metrics Are Unreliable

Early users are atypical:

• More forgiving
• More curious
• More patient

Their behavior does not generalize.

Vanity metrics inflate confidence:

• Total users
• Downloads
• Page views
• Sign-ups

None indicate durability.

Metrics That Matter Early

Focus on:

• Retention: Do users come back without prompting?
• Cohort behavior: Does usage improve or decay?
• Time to value: How fast does benefit occur?
• Willingness to pay: Even in small numbers

These reveal structure, not excitement.

A Useful Reframe

Instead of asking:

“Are we growing?”

Ask:

“Is usage stabilizing or eroding?”

Flat but stable beats fast and fragile.

Founder Responsibility

Your job is not to tell a compelling story.
It is to uncover an uncomfortable truth early enough to act.